simply the time taken for takeovers would mean we have all the results from both 105 and 120 before anything could be done - the t/o offer price would be meaningless as the whole company will have changed materially (up or down)
I agree with BPAA - games will be played until just after spud/before 1st target depths are reached which will see up/downs with a gradually rising trend - I'm hoping for a safety factor announcement - positive news on California producing assets or coming explo there which will give a "worst outcome" SP if Vietnam is dry - a higher base case scenario will give a starting point to build blue sky onto the SP
thinking on one hand that; we have all the major news that we'll get on Vietnam until we have wirelines which wont be for I'll guess August (awaited 3D news may change target sizes, confirm locations and/or change number of sands at the location chosen but when risked @ 10-20% or whatever will be negligible) ;
on the other hand, have watched BESBS plays since the mkt cared about it (which was when POO probably breached 50 a decade ago) and NEN has further north to go until we reach what the norm pre-spud SP should be when weighing up mkt cap v target size, COS, current assets, debt(none),POO, mkt sentiment etc
NEN Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
