Exit strategy?...I'll sell the lot between between 15-20c...lol
Seriously though, I am happy to sit on about 2m oppies through to expiry and will have to sell the rest prior.
Between now and then however, anything can happen...I am sure there will be plenty of opportunities for the price to improve.
So..if it does rally, I may progressively off-load the excess from about 7c up...depending on when and how things look at the time.
If however the price does continue to fall, I may progressively off-load the excess from about 4c down...not on the first dip below this, but more than likely on the second or third!
It all depends on where things are in the cycle, the market in general and numerous other factors that may influence my decision to sell. I am unlikely to sell a large parcel this side of christmas.
Really though, the shares would have to be trading as low as 18c for me to really be worried at this point...and given the life of the options, they really should be carrying a better premium than they are currently, so as I see it, I am happy to keep buying at current levels.
Even if the worst were to happen and the shares dipped into the high teens, one would expect the oppies to hold around 3c...not exactly the end of the world!
I do agree with you that some of the announcements I flagged will only have a minor effect on the share price...however some of them should have a more significant effect, such as;
1. The Spudding of Walkillie should create some interest...of course, if it hits something it would have a major effect on the shareprice.
2. Confirmation that Worrior has been bought into production and that flows are sustainable will be well accepted. All sorts of things can go wrong with this sort of find...so if the substantial flows prove to be sustainable, I think a few of the bigger fence sitters might take it as a signal to take a position.
Importantly, I am sure that if Worrior proves to be as good as expected, they will give the go-ahead for the pipeline, thereby freeing the field to much higher production rates.
As I see it, a pipeline is crucial to improving the economics of Worrior and would cause the market to upgrade COE's (and STU's) value considerably. It is important, not only beacuse it allows production from Worrior-1 to doubled, but beacuse it would effectively give the go-ahead to the drilling of future development wells on the field...imagine 3 Worrior's, all producing at over 2000 bbls/d. This could be possible by mid next year!
3. Confirmation of total daily oil flows attributable to COE...possibly in the 2Q activities report? This might surprise a few and at the very least, give us some kind of indication of the bottom line $/barrel profits.
4. The spudding of one or more development wells (Worrior-2 & 3?) to improve Worrior deliverability should be well accepted...of course, we should see some excitement when they hit similar horizons as Worrior-1.
5. The spudding of two development wells (Christies-1 & 2?) to improve Christies deliverability should also be well accepted...and again, when they strike similar horizons as Christies-1 the shares should react positively.
6. Wildcat wells...the company may bring forward some of their programs, which may see one or more drilled prior to March next year, especially if the company is confident of getting the extra money from the oppies.
7. Corporate plays? This is always a possibility and is one of the reasons why I will always keep a large number of options close to my chest. It would just be my luck that I would be caught out when the trading halt came and I was unable to get back in due to the gap up.
So...given all the things that can transpire prior to March next year, Im sure that we will see the oppies expire well into the money when the time comes.
I am also sure that COE management will do everything in their power to make sure they get over the line!
Cheers!
COE Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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