Simple I see Mt K as a absolute ceiling on the stock price for along time. 10 to 12 cents till all the options gone. High teens till all bounds converted. I do not think that will happen by 2020.
The fees are very reasonable if I can trade 100,000 + at a time which is not many $. But when in two weeks, actually 7 trading days, all I have is a few thousand the fees hurt.
Though I think Lynas has a bright future, when debt is finally resolved, short term my inability to trade freely raises both cost and risk to where I believe there are much better investments here in the US for Me. Still think Lynas is a great possibility but you do not go into a fight with both hands tied behind your back.
I have never looked at Commsec, I will.
As far as $1.00 SP I just do not see it. When MtK is totally out there will be over 7 billion shares outstanding. I do not see a PE or equity ratio that supports that price. Mining and processing industry usually has a PE of 5 to 10. Lets be generous and say Lynas has a one year forward looking
PE of 20. (I think way to high) 5C times 7B is $350M /yr. What volume and ASP are you using to show that kind of profit? or what PE are you using and why?
I do not know at what price Mt K will start converting bounds. My belief is high teens. It is my belief is they will be converted and sell as many as they can. Lets say it happens at 15C times 3 B shares is $450M of new money that has to flow into LYC.AX to maintain a 15C price. This is why I doubt all bounds will be converted by 2020. 20C then $900M new money to support the 20C price. This is just to cover MTK it does not consider holders of the stock today taking some of their profits.
When Lynas becomes profitable there will be a shift from people looking at what Lynas may become to what is the PE and Equity. It was this shift that started the whole DOT COM collapse.
LYC Price at posting:
8.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)