If I may point readers to an older comment of mine back when the share price was $1.74:
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/why...s-soon.2716204/?post_id=17165196#.V1rI3PkrKUk
What has changed since then is that mgt raised new capital and will be using it to smooth harvest proceeds over the next few years, which does mitigate the key negative point I wrote about. Additionally, the company's valuation metrics are more appealing with FY17/FY18 PERs (from Cannacord's Feb 16 note) now lowered to ~15x and 14x respectively (on a cash EPS basis)
Also, as andymca and CjsfromNSW point out, TFC has shown consistent share price trends and has been trading in a fairly clear range which is even further highlighted if one shifts to a longer-term timeframe such as 3 years, which shows range between $1.10 and $2.20. I argue TFC is a valid 'play the trading range' stock as the stock offers clear earnings visibility over the coming half decade from plantation and oil/heartwood sales (assuming that the world doesn't collapse).
So my perspective is that the current share price weakness presents a buying opportunity (again on a multi-year timeframe) rather than a value trap, and I will be considering reinvesting proceeds from my profit taking earlier in the year.
