VGL 0.98% $2.02 vista group international limited.

re: buying opportunity? snake Many thanks for that excellent...

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    re: buying opportunity? snake Many thanks for that excellent summary - certainly good to get an independent view.
    Sounds like nothing new either way - to prompt buying or selling, except those that were hoping for some goods news may now just decide to get out.
    Will be interesting to see what the brokers come out with now. This was SSB's comments of 14/11, after the downgrade -
    Earnings Downgrade
    Throwing the baby out with the bath water?
    † 1H06 NPAT guidance of $2m-$2.5m was highly surprising and roughly $4m below our expectations. The shortfall has been blamed on poor 1Q06 IT hardware sales across the industry following a strong 4Q05, and teething issues with the new sales engagement model.

    † We have downgraded our core EPS forecasts by >20%p.a. with more detailed information to be provided at the AGM on 23 November.

    † Notwithstanding credibility issues with the new management team and the low level of confidence we have in the near-term profit outlook, we do believe the share price reaction is overdone with the stock trading on a FY06e EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.3x, EV/EBITA of 6.0x and PER of 9.3x.

    † While we wouldn't consider the 8.5¢ DPS as 'locked in', we do view it as highly payable given a payout ratio of 84% on our new forecasts, and the ungeared nature of the company's balance sheet.

    † And while its easy to throw the baby out with the bath water, we do note that the key attraction of the company - its services business - appears to be tracking ahead of the pcp.

    † With much of the damage likely already in the share price and given that valuation multiples look undemanding, we retain our Buy rating while our target price has been cut 29% to $1.24 from $1.74 (reflecting a 20% discount for the lack of confidence over forecasts).

 
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