that is ugly but...here is something from Morningstar for...

that is ugly but...

here is something from Morningstar for holders to enjoy reading. Update 18/12/20.

A2 Milk Facing Near-Term Challenges, but Shares Offer Margin of Safety; FVE MaintainedA2 Milk's COVID-19-related disruption has worsened, but shares in the narrow-moat name now screen as undervalued. A slower rebound in both daigou and online channels has led management to reduce near-term guidance to below our expectations. A2 now forecasts fiscal 2021 revenue of NZD 1.4 to NZD 1.55 billion, down from NZD 1.8 to NZD 1.9 billion, with EBITDA margins between 26% and 29%, versus 31%. We've reduced our revenue forecast to about NZD 1.5 billion, with EBITDA margins of 27%. This suggests a top-line fall of 14% versus fiscal 2020, and EBITDA declining a sharper 26%.However, we maintain our fair value of NZD 16.30 per share (AUD 15.20), as we view the ongoing issues as temporary. The primary challenge has been a2's push to sell more infant formula through e-commerce sales in China amid the pandemic, which has proven more competitive than anticipated versus the daigou channel. This has led to greater online product discounting than a2 expected, leaving little room for daigou sellers to compete and limiting their recent rebound. Management now plans to refocus on corporate daigou, providing direct incentives and holding back e-commerce volume to maintain a2 Platinum's premium price position. While this strategy will likely slow near-term sales volumes and dampen margins, we're encouraged by the focus on brand health, and forecast double-digit annual revenue gains in the four years from fiscal 2022 through 2025 (albeit at a slower pace than previously), alongside EBITDA margins increasing to nearly 32%.Meanwhile, Chinese-language labelled infant formula sold through retail stores in China remain a bright spot for a2, with 12-month rolling market share sitting at 2.3% in October, per management, up from 2.2% in September and 1.7% in December 2019. This is tracking our forecast for a percentage point gain in market share annually, on average, and further supports our view that underlying consumer demand for a2's formula remains strong.