So you reckon that the company could either survive via a...

So you reckon that the company could either survive via a recapitalisation plan or go bust.

Let's forget about VA, and talk about recapitalisation. In specific, we are talking about debt restructuring with no PE firms involved (as the talk is only between the banks and AG). Now, what kind of choices do they have? IMO it's gonna be either a outright D4E, or banks taking a raging haircut and then proceed to take a D4E.

So a D4E is very likely to happen. And the price that the banks are gonna accept is definitely going to be at a discount of the current share price. Now with the share price plummeting the price for the banks will be adjusted downward with the same magnitude. It's a dead spiral, incumbent shareholders will be diluted big time and take years to recover.

If the banks decide to forgive the majority of the loans, then we can see it gaps up crazily. But, this is less than likely to happen don't you agree?

All of this is based on the assumption that the banks decide to not to pull the plug. The riskiness of this stock is off the charts. It might be worth a day trade, but that's about it.