Yes, with:
BHP set to add 35 Mtpa in March 2014
RIO set to add 53 Mtpa in Q3 2013
FMG set to add 55 Mtpa (from Solomon Firetail)from March 2013 and a further 40Mtpa (from ?) to take them to their target of 155Mtpa from the current 60Mptpa
Hancock Prospecting set to add 55 Mtpa from Roy Hill soon
and with China only managing to absorb an extra 30 Mtpa per annum, it all looks like the only way to keep profits up is to ramp volume (while price presumably falls to, say, $90 a tonne - yes, there will be a supply side reaction where some high cost producers, not in Australia, have to shut down). Since no one wants to lose market share or have lower profits the future will all be about maximising the volume, so FMS will simply have to be taken out by one of the big players (we will be a low cost producer, which is important in a low price environment). I expect the value-accretive events our BOD have been talking about are the increased Jorc resource statement and the take-out by one of the big players. Rio can obviously offer more as the cost to them to bring us into production will be lower than for say, FMG. I expect we won't be an independent company by about October (just when the cash runs out). How all very convenient. Come on Rio, get your act together and bid!
P.S. I haven't bothered to discuss AGO, BCK and BCI volume additions, but just AGO's ramp up plans alone can supply China's iron ore consumption growth for one year. I can't see any of these three bidding for us as they bring no advantage unlike Rio and FMG.
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