Previous falls were 20-25%This implies BHP returning to $38.20...

Previous falls were 20-25%

This implies BHP returning to $38.20 to $35.80.

Current share price is only above $40 because the PE ratio has blown out on the back of spec in relation to Olympic Dam desposit and higher oil and iron ore prices. Market had only been factoring positives and not negatives (eg a slow down in BRICs and US recession). Current PE of 14-15 treats BHP almost an industrial share, not a commodities company. Base metal prices are under pressure.

Its really hard to find value in BHP above $36, and BHP now carries the risk of a takeover of RIO at a heavy cost to its shareholders (the usual story).

The $55 price tag is what it should have in mid 2009, not 2007.

Hype gone mad, on the back of buying from Asia I suppose.

Only real improvement I can see is better marketing stragies by kloppers in a range of commodies, such as iron ore, were Australian miners have been ripped off in the past. There may also be some production increases (finally).