DYOR. Valuations posted here are highly-speculative and not intended as financial advice. You must do your own research (particularly on clinical risk, the history of Bisantrene and previous Pharma Buyouts) to form your own views on the value of RACE and Bisantrene.
Summary below of my most recent valuation dated 29 May 2021.
I expect RACE could potentially achieve a blockbuster range buyout transaction in the AUD $58 to AUD $153 per share in a 12-18 month timeframe if RACE successfully deliver on their strategy to prove up the value Bisantrene IP to Big Pharma. This is through a series of preclinical and proof-of-concept trials. RACE are also able to to leverage the significant value of the historic trials data for Bisantrene ( over 2000 patients treated in Phase I, II and III trials in the 1980s and 1990s ). As well as having a strong safety profile with low cardiotoxicity, Bisantrene has compelling efficacy as a single-agent.
Over the next 12-18 months expect to see regular dosing updates and data readouts for 6 clinical trials. There is also a busy program of preclinical activities that aim to generate additional data a Big Pharma buyer of partner could use to support approval applications for Bisantrene. Expect a steady drumbeat of regular price-sensitive newsflow as this program progresses.
My current risked valuation for a transaction is AUD $94 per share based on a risked post-tax NPV USD $12.9B. See pages 10 and 11 of the PDF for the detail including assumptions used.
See the PDF for more detail.
