from yesterday's Coppo Report at Bell Potter ...
BWX (Buy time?) BWX {4.49 -0.16 -3.44%} Result missed & it's never been the same.. I pushed as a SELL on 15th March (was $5.15) BUT If short I'd be looking to cover.. Not sure if they are a BUY yet .. but maybe for the true believers ??
problem is when you trade on a 2018 PE of 28.4x you are expected to deliver a strong clean result – but when you don’t & guidance is now 10% below mkt, the mkt deals with you appropriately accordingly ..
this is 2nd time they have downgrades expectations (Aug 2016 & Feb 2017) - mkt doesn't like that & hence that's why they have been hammered even harder this time..
1H18 EBITDA came in -18% below our forecast. Revenue up 79.2% but Sukin brand sales look a bit on the soft side, while the recent acquisitions contributed less than our forecast. EBITDA margin fell to 26% (down from 34.1% in 1H17).
Outlook: Guidance of $42-46m for FY18e has been provided representing a 60-74% growth rate. This is below our current $48.7m forecast and will be impacted by a small degree by the discontinuation of its third part operations.
OK if they can do this then the stocks slide looks over..
EPS growth 2018, 2019 & 2020 is +23%, +23% & +22% PE 2018 of just 19.3x Yield 1.7ff -- so that may be why some have been buying down here..
But you have to "trust" the numbers !!!!
BWX Price at posting:
$4.80 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
