Hola, my name is oNste and I have been around HC and investing for a while now. I am here to drop a bit of knowledge and hopefully encourage some thoughtful conversation, this is some analysis I have been working on.
BXN came up on my radar maybe 6 years ago (possibly more) when I would perform my usual market screen for nano-caps. This was when their business was primarily focused on the PPC and Direct Sales approach. I never purchased them as their business was from memory, very jagged and they never seemed to get it going. Still, I placed them on my watchlist and would check in every now and then, because although the business was bad, it seemed like the kind of holding that could maybe shine through given a good turn around crew.
The BXN stock now does not even closely resemble what it did back then, the primary driver of this change was the reverse acquisition of BLS by BXN in 2023, and the MedCan business being subsumed into BXN, which is where we are now.
My overall investment strategy has developed over the years and I’ve had my share of winners, and a couple of losers along the way. I’ve been fortunate in the fact that my winners have been larger than my losers. However, my strategy almost entirely focuses on nano-cap stocks on a fundamental analysis basis. I find businesses close to or at CFP, whose business models I can understand, with management that don’t seem like gimps, and I take positions in them, derisking on the upswing as I go. Although this last part is a relatively new addition to my strategy, I have taken on board after considering the returns that I’ve left on the table over the years, buying at low prices and not wanting to butcher my return % at the cost of lower absolute returns. TLDR: I’d rather make 400% on $10k than 1000% on $2k.
The crux of the matter is simple, I find cheap companies that are finally starting to make money and I buy them. I chase multi-baggers, I am completely uninterested in returns less than a double on my initial investment, realistically I’m looking for holds that return 300% or more. If you talk to me about blue chip stocks, I may cry or become enraged, depending on the level of alcohol consumption on the day.
I have taken some time over the last few weeks to do a bit of analysis, constructing some very basic modelling and trying to find additional supplementary information. This analysis is not yet complete, and I would implore you to respond back to this post if you have better information, which I will happily integrate into my own research. I am more than happy to have this post as a living entity. It is my belief that crowd sourced research is a net positive for all holders, it helps all of us understand the stock better and provides a lower barrier to entry for new holders, hopefully with more confidence for long term holds.
If you find anything in here where you think I am wrong or produced incorrect data, please mention it, I will endeavour to fix it. Enjoy.
| Quarter | Revenue | % on PCP | Net Cash from Ops | |
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| 1 | Q1 FY24 | $2,106 |
| -$1,609 | Final |
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| 2 | Q2 FY24 | $2,597 |
| -$602 | Final |
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| 3 | Q3 FY24 | $1,591 |
| -$866 | Final |
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| 4 | Q4 FY24 | $3,135 |
| -$488 | Final |
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| 5 | Q1 FY25 | $4,545 | 115.81 | $1,217 | Final |
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| 6 | Q2 FY25 | $8,051 | 210.01 | $1,740 | Final |
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| 7 | Q3 FY25 | $7,190 | 351.92 | $1,859 | Final |
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| 8 | Q4 FY25 | $8,000 | 155.18 |
| Estimated |
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| Product | Customer | Product | Units | Price |
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| 1 | Nectartek Balance THC CBD 20:20 Gummy 60 | NektarTek | Pastilles | 60 | $200/AUD |
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| 2 | Dr Watson THC20 Mixed Berry | Dr Watson | Pastilles | 30 | $89/USD |
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| HY/FY | Revenue | Profit from Ops | NPAT | NPAT Margin | NTA |
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| 1 | 31 Dec 2023 | $4,641,216.00 | -$12,284,661.00 | -$12,284,661.00 | N/A | 0.14 |
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| 2 | 30 June 2024 | $9,325,020.00 | -$12,974,651.00 | -$12,974,651.00 | N/A |
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| 3 | 31 Dec 2024 | $12,563,277.00 | $3,277,468.00 | $3,277,468.00 | 26.09% | 0.34 |
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| 4 | 30 June 2025 | $28,000,000 |
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| Note |
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| 1 | Gummies | $57,000,000.00 | They stated that this represents 50% of the Total Production Capacity availble in AUs |
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| 2 | Total | $114,000,000 | If Gummies production at $57M is 50% of the total production capacity, then their total capacity is $114M |
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| Deals | Value | Delivery Period | Customer |
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| 1 | July 2024 | $2,000,000 | 12 July - 12 Aug |
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| 2 | July 2024 | $28,000,000 | July 2024 - July 2026 | Top 5 Medicine Clinic (Not stated) |
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| 3 | April 2025 | $7,000,000 | 1 July 2025 - 30 June 2026 | NektarTek |
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| 4 | June 2025 | $5,600,000 | 1 July 2025 - 30 June 2026 | Adrex/Farmakem |
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| Segments | Wholesale PCC | Plant Based | Manufacture/Sales |
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| 1 | FY 2023 | $42,555 | $5,111,860 | $0 |
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| 2 | HY 2024 | $432,588 | $3,041,633 | $1,166,995 |
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| 3 | FY 2024 | $866,906 | $5,438,817 | $2,999,297 |
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| 4 | HY 2025 | $551,108 | $1,315,657 | $10,696,512 |
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| 5 | FY 2025 |
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| Competitors | Ticker | MCAP | Business Focus | HY 2025 Rev | HY Profit | HY NTA/cents | Notes on HY | FY 2025 Rev | FY Profit | FY NTA/cents |
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| 1 | Althea | AGH | $23,000,000 | THC Beverages | $10,585 | -$1,526 | -0.51 |
| $10,585 | -$1,526 | -0.51 |
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| 2 | Little Green Pharma | LGP | $31,920,000 | Med THC Products | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| $36,841 | $3,324 | 24.05 |
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| 3 | Vitura | VIT | $41,000,000 | MedCan and Digital | $62,700 | $2,200 |
| HY NPAT PCP down 50% from 3.8, also, they have massive debt of $18M |
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| 4 | Cann Group | CAN | $7,000,000 | MedCan Cultivation | $6,467 | -$10,698 | 1.18 | This is the second stock I've seen mention pricing pressures in AU MedCan |
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| 5 | Zelira | ZLD | $5,350,000 | MedCan Biotech | $655, not in thousasnds | -$2,410,639 | -0.754 |
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| 6 | AusCan | AC8 | Delisted |
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| 7 | IDT Australia | IDT | $39,850,000 | MedCan Production | $10,500 | -$3,300 | 6.21 | Absolutely terrible |
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| 8 | ECS Botanics | ECS | $10,360,000 | MedCan Cultivator | $9,760 | -$1,980 | 2.61 | Rev. down 16% from PCP and NPAT down from 1.2M profit. Another note from this company mentioning that margins have tightened since reg changes in 2023 allowing imported products |
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| on quoted 3m RR | Half AU Prod | Full AU Prod |
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| 1 | Projection | $28,000,000 | $36,000,000 | $57,000,000 | $114,000,000 |
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| 2 | Gross Profit 50% | $14,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $28,500,000 | $57,000,000 |
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| 3 | NPAT 26% | $7,280,000 | $9,360,000 | $14,820,000 | $29,640,000 |
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| 4 | NPAT 30% | $8,400,000 | $10,800,000 | $17,100,000 | $34,200,000 |
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| 5 | MCAP on Price/Earnings of 20 @ 26% NPAT | $145,600,000 | $187,200,000 | $296,400,000 | $592,800,000 |
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| 6 | MCAP on P/E 15 @ 26% NPAT | $109,200,000 | $140,400,000 | $222,300,000 | $444,600,000 |
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| BXN Notes from Anns: |
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| 1 | 31 Dec 2024 Quarterly | BLS is projecting revenue growth in individual product categories in the next two quarters of between 30% to 50%. |
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| 2 | Half Year | Several major contracts for manufacture of key products with a total of $47.5m in contracted pipeline of purchase orders from key clients; |
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| 3 |
| They state in the half year 47.5m which was released in Feb, since then they've announced a $7M and $5.6M addition. |
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| 4 |
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| 5 |
| If this 60M holds on the 50% GPM, and the NPAT Margin, as on the HY of 12m they did 3.3M NPAT, then the $60 Pipeline through |
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| 6 |
| to EOFY26 will be good for 15M in Profit, with 8M of that coming in this FY. |
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