BYE buy MEL?!?, page-15

Nothing too ground breaking from me, unfortunately. I'd say the majority of larger long term holders sold out to Purcell/sold around that time. The majority of long term holders would be smaller bottom draw style holders. A lot would be hesitant of both Purcell and Keybridge. Purcell appeared to want control of the company; Keybridge have historically targeted cash boxes. It's hard to know what current motives are and that is a risk in itself.

As far as the share price goes - I think the company is currently being viewed as a financier of other operations, rather than a bona fide explorer. The two exploration efforts under the current management have, unfortunately, been unsuccessful. As such I think the market is discounting the company as they haven't proven that they can play the oil game yet. The financing side of the operation is construed as being constrained, as the majority of capital has been deployed in BYE. As such the market sees it as unlikely that another BYE type deal would occur in the near term. The Cooper blocks will require capital and the market is viewing them as early stage still - so unlikely to add significant value in the short term and therefore valued as a cash drag. With the SM74 drill delayed again there hasn't been any real value attributed to it.

As such, the value of the company is seen as cash value, with discounts for lack of exploration success, perceived financial inflexibility, and Cooper requiring cash. SM74 delays have resulted in limited value being attributed to this, given the drill results will be around 2 months away.

I personally value the company differently as I believe that they could sell the BYE stake at a premium in a block trade, have a solid technical crew and have a great bit of ground in ATP2021 with a farm-out likely. SM74 really looks good, but it certainly is a binary outcome: success is a company maker; failure sees a low cash balance and subsequent reduction in value of the BYE assets. It's nowhere near RMP level in terms of consequences, but there is a risk that it goes into the high 3's in a failure case.

Short answer - the big catalyst is at least 2 months away and I believe that everything else is being viewed as a risk/cash drag rather than an asset. Hopefully a farm out and articulation of forward program details will reverse this.