Byron Swaps rig, page-7

With the Dec quarterlies out, we can workout the estimated cash balances end of Mar qtr for OEL and their various partners.

Its interesting that BYE, SWE, and 88E all trade at significant premiums to their cash balances, whereas OEL trades at a 40-50% discount to cash.

So with our partners/peers trading at premiums, it implies that its not our acreage that the market hates so much.

Management ?
They did a pretty good job with Galoc sale timing, and drilling H-1 with a USD6m profit.
Still scratching my head on how the Alaska deal went down. Could've been a miss-step there but hard to know exactly.

Large holder getting out ?
Top 20 almost unchanged from Sept qtr.
Leads me to think the selling is mainly a few traders churning all or part of their holdings.

Lack of newsflow ?
Could be a factor. OEL dont play the same game as say 88E for example. Newsflow is fairly conservative and in the case of the Galoc sale, didn't appear to leak before the announcement.
I think traders prefer 88E's style.

Upcoming GOM drilling probably wont get anyone too excited as the targeted reserves are modest.
However, the riskier targeted resources are of reasonable size so those zones could provide some decent upside if successful.

Tanzania farmout and drilling is probably what will get punters back on board. I note SWE will be almost broke by the end of this qtr (down to ~$300K) so they'll be aggressively promoting the Kito drill ahead of a CR, imo. Salaries and lifestyles are at stake !
The competent persons report on Kito due soon will kickoff the newsflow I suspect.

Re any farmout for Kito, I wonder if OEL would consider an outright sale, given the pivot to the more stable Nth America ?