cabinet meeting

There is a meeting of the Malaysian Cabinet tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. Cabinet meetings typically finish at around midday or 1pm. If Ongkili is going to make his TOL decision public this week (as his last public statement suggests), I would have thought he'd brief the cabinet first. So, if no announcement comes out this afternoon, there is a reasonable probability that he will make his announcement after the cabinet meeting tomorrow.

I think there is a zero probability that the TOL will be rejected. By far the most likely the scenario (95% probability) is that the TOL will issued and LYC can start importing material immediately. The worst case scenario (5% probability), as I see things, is that Ongkili issues the TOL, but adds a further condition to it (to show that the government took the anti-lynas groups seriously).

By some measures, LYC is presently trading on an FY14 PE of less than 2. Once TOL and commissioning risks are out of the way, there is huge upside potential with LYC.