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crom

312 Posts.

196

28/07/22

11:41

Post #: 62777094
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Originally posted by Watchfulbull: ↑

Was just looking again at Euroz analyst report from 25th May22.

In the below valuation/price targets they have used 1800US POG and .73Fx, which is very close to close to current 1720POG and .69FX. They also used 1478 AISC which is close enough to DR recent presentations saying should be able to contain at around 1500. So income and expenses remain roughly similar to the Euroz report. Probably the big difference is that we have been advised the plant should be able to run at 2.8mtp.a rather than 2.4, so thats a 16.6% increase in throughtput.

If you assume a 15% increase in throughput and directly increase the below price targets by the same % (which is conservative since higher volume/throughput should theoretically reduce AISC), that gives a base case $1.38 (a 2.2x increase from here) and the bullish case $1.72 (2.7x from here). I am arrogantly discarding the bearish scenario. Nice potential for a producer with capex sunk and a variety of upside angles.

PS: Price target is simply 1.25 x NAV

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Great post mate re the Euroz report! I think it might be being read today with the sp starting to rise a little (5% as I post). Ok, POG increasing helps as well (lol). But all looking positive for this great company.

CAI Price at posting: 66.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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