Have had a little time to let the dust settle and re-read the...

Have had a little time to let the dust settle and re-read the ann with some notes. Still not rosey but not a basket case.

Overall everything just looks tight. Grade tight, Oz produced tight, lower Oz means most prodn sold into the hedges, combine that with higher AISC (due mostly to lower oz prodn) and so margins are tight, therefore profit and cashflow are tight, which makes you fell the debt burden etc.

Tight = Risk

"Stage 1" going from 85-90K Oz down to 70K Oz is the fundamental reason for this tightness/risk. On a risk adjusted (conservative) basis the operation is low margin positive at this level based on the current metrics. If this was for the next 6 months OK that's fine, but for it to be the target for the whole of Stage 1 (until either UG or Blue Spec come online) is very tough to take. If we could get back to even 80-85K Oz p.a we will have some decent profit/cashflow because all this upside is the juicy stuff above the hedge sold at spot. I wonder how much under promise over deliver is in the 70K oz p.a. number. That equates to 5.83 oz p.mth average for the whole of Stage 1?? H2 guidance is already 5.5K p.mth (if you take the midpoint). Even Dec22 was 5K.oz. So they are saying the whole of Stage 1 of the project will only be 16% better than Dec22?? (PS: for reference DFS ~85K Oz pa = 7K.oz.pmth).

Any improvement leading to prodn oz upside has a profound effect on the project overall. Whether that be coming into better strip, resolving blast waste/ore dilution, rejigging the mine plan again to access better areas now, resolving HR issues for productivity, etc. Also - running at 10% above nameplate constantly will be a big +. As a positive the Ann did say "..in Dec the plant operated 10% above nameplate for extended periods of time. Minor works wil be undertaken to ensure this increase capacity can be sustainable LoM".

Best to all those still on the roller-coaster.