Hey CT, hence why I view a 1:1 CR as not being such a bad idea....

Hey CT, hence why I view a 1:1 CR as not being such a bad idea.
RSG.... is a different beast to CAI, though I think it does illustrate what can happen if a share price is suppressed, then... a major capital raising is done which removes much of the 'risk' (real or otherwise). I will say that RSG is still riddled with holes IMHO.

As you say, a major capital raising can easily occur, if voted for.

Regarding the hedge, there have been many examples of hedging being ' rejigged', without a full payout occurring.
Off the top of my head, I think DCN did one a while back, which basically mirrors what CAI hope to do. Push hedging back and pushback the debt payments. It was not done for free I might add. The ledgers are at an advantage though clearly.

There are other options too, but I have never had any inclination to think they are on the table, like... CAI basically saying to ALK. Come make an offer...

Whilst I am typing away, I thought I would re-check the hedging situation.



They started with 125k at $2355. But then added 20k more for delivery in 2022 (or at least, that is what they stated) at $2688 (that has all been delivered).
Yet... they start 2023 with 126, 835 ounces at $2367.

This is from the Dec Q.


So they delivered 18,165 ounces, which is far above the average amount of ounces required over the rest of the hedging period.
126.8k / 11 quarters = 11,530 ounces a Q, or... at 6k per month/18q a quarter = 64%. I don't think there is any other way to say that they are fairly stuffed if they cannot change this situation. Obviously, if they could increase production earlier, like bring on Blue Spec, it would help reduce the weighting, but.. they need a minimum of perhaps $30m to do so (from memory).

The big jump in costs... is really making life hard for CAI.

I keep watching CAI (I only have a tiny parcel left), in case I can see some way for it to become better value, yet... I just cannot see how this gets turned around. The reduction in grade, higher costs and debt/hedging means all the upside has sort of...evaporated.

Happy to be proven wrong, as this sector is brutal, few developers get into production and then few make a success of it like say CMM.