Having also done some calculations - the debt may be too...

Having also done some calculations - the debt may be too significant to ignore in this instance. In fact, I think the debt + Macquarie's involvement is the secondary cause for concern currently outside of operational issues.

The full amount is repayable over the tenor of the loan - I'm estimating $9-10m per quarter (based on 3.25 years; 102m remaining; 8%-10% rate).

Even if our AISC comes down in the future (highly possible), CAI is liable to repay this debt across this tenor which happens to coincide with our high cost period. Complicating matters further, the hedge limits the sale price achieved which serves to reduce margin further.

So yes, our standalone AISC may not be as bad as some other companies out there - but combining this with the confluence of factors impacting the company is what I believe is the real concern. Cash is king - and I don't know how long a cash balance of 12m will last under these circumstances.

I do agree with you that looking forward, they could be placed better than others. I'm more concerned with how they make it through the next 12 - 24 months. I don't expect Macquarie to be in the business of losing money and I certainly didn't feel comfortable sitting behind them in the priority queue.