Cairn announcement, page-37

Great outcome, and I'll definitely have a drink tonight ... next step however is to work out what it's worth!

A bit of googling gave me the following, perhaps one of the O & G experts can tell me if I am on the right track?
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P90 (P1), 250 mmbbls, (90% certainty of at least 250m barrels ($2.5bn present value @ $10/ barrel)

P50, 950 mmbbls (50% certainty of at least 950m barrels ($9.5bn/2 = $4.25bn present value @ $10 / barrel)
P2 = (P90 + P50) 1200 mmbbls = $6.75bn (or $12 bn?)


P10, 2,500 mmbbls (10% certainty of at least 2,500m barrels ($25.5bn / 10 = present value @ $10 / barrel)
P3= (P90+ P50+ P10) = 3700mmbbls = $9bn or (37.5bn?)

I guess the oil will be valued at more than $10 once it is extracted if the quality is excellent (which it appears to be)

Woo hoo
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From wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrocarbon_exploration

Oil and gas reserves are defined as volumes that will be commercially recovered in the future. Reserves are separated into three categories: proved, probable, and possible. To be included in any reserves category, all commercial aspects must have been addressed, which includes government consent. Technical issues alone separate proved from unproved categories. All reserve estimates involve some degree of uncertainty.

• Proved reserves are the highest valued category. Proved reserves have a "reasonable certainty" of being recovered, which means a high degree of confidence that the volumes will be recovered. Some industry specialists refer to this as P90, i.e., having a 90% certainty of being produced. The SEC provides a more detailed definition:

Proved oil and gas reserves are those quantities of oil and gas, which, by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be economically producible—from a given date forward, from known reservoirs, and under existing economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations—prior to the time at which contracts providing the right to operate expire, unless evidence indicates that renewal is reasonably certain, regardless of whether deterministic or probabilistic methods are used for the estimation. The project to extract the hydrocarbons must have commenced or the operator must be reasonably certain that it will commence the project within a reasonable time.[5]

• Probable reserves are volumes defined as "less likely to be recovered than proved, but more certain to be recovered than Possible Reserves". Some industry specialists refer to this as P50, i.e., having a 50% certainty of being produced.
• Possible reserves are reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are less likely to be recoverable than probable reserves. Some industry specialists refer to this as P10, i.e., having a 10% certainty of being produced.

The term 1P is frequently used to denote proved reserves; 2P is the sum of proved and probable reserves; and 3P the sum of proved, probable, and possible reserves. The best estimate of recovery from committed projects is generally considered to be the 2P sum of proved and probable reserves. Note that these volumes only refer to currently justified projects or those projects already in development.[6]