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joseph1652

4,770 Posts.

541

16/03/18

11:04

Post #: 31801708
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Originally posted by rollacoaster ↑

Disagree there will be much pain if A2 turns out poorly.
I highly doubt any upside to A2 is built into the current shareprice.
Why is this you ask? Three main reasons I say:

The shareprice before we got A2 is roughly where it is today give or take 10-20% depending on which quarter/month/week/day you look at. Given the shareprice has barely changed since we got A2, I cannot see the market valuing COS highly or at all. If the market is in fact factoring in a resonable COS then it must be valuing SNE less than it was 12 months ago as the shareproce is roughly the same. This is highly unlikely given the upward pressure on POO and warming of the markets towards oil.

SNE has become further derisked since getting A2 which should have resulted in a higher shareprice by itself, whilst it hasnt resulted in a higher shareprice, this does provide downside protection to todays shareprice when comparing to the shareprice a year or two ago.

SNE is not only further derisked since FAR got A2, but based on a 10% required rate of return per year and assuming no other changes to FAR (of which A2 is the only notable change) then shares in FAR are worth roughly 10% more to anyone looking to buy now when compared to the FAR of say 12 months ago. This is just based on time cost of money and required rate of return fundentals etc - FAR is 12 months closer to its end goal, whatever that may be, than it was 12 months ago. Yet the shareprice is roughly the same, indicating further downside protection to todays shareprice if A2 is no good.

One of my main focuses when having a decent crack at a company is to limit downside risk so I have thought about what A2 might do to the shareprice quite a bit and see little if any downside risk at todays shareprice.

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I dont think any thing will make any different with the share price ,no matter what we have ,wright now ,FAR is being held by the big boys till time ,when they will know which way PE will go .then they will simply take as over at a lower rate ,they question is who is doing it .

FAR Price at posting: 8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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