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Cairn sells 40% share to Lukoil, page-108

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Davy Boy

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28/07/20

16:56

Post #: 46131462
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Originally posted by HenrYa1965: ↑

WPL will only bid if they want to ensure control. Otherwise, just wait till December when it's free.

Expand

IF the government take their share WPL will still be short of the votes required to guarantee operator even if FAR default.
They need 39.1%.

Originally posted by CaptainBarnacles: ↑

Feel welcome to straighten me out - please - if I am wrong about any of my facts.

So WPL has operatorship and hence they can determine the timing of cap ex etc as long as they don't get over-ruled by a 61% vote against?
WPL will have 31.9% of the vote post Petrosen taking up rights, so can be rolled on certain decisions unless they get over 39%?

If my facts are right, WPL might gain a benefit from getting to just over 39% post Petrosen to reduce potential risks to timing etc. WPL might also like having a partner with deep pockets and deep expertise like Lukoil.

So . . .

WPL may pre-empt up to 35% of the sale amount to get up to 14%, and get over the 39% line, but maybe jeopardise the sale and have a disinterested and financially weaker Cairns remain the partner.

Or they can acquire FAR's 15% interest (13.7% later) and get over that line, and have Lukoil as a 36.4% partner post Petrosen rights?

For Lukoil this is some great diversification outside of Russia. Would they want to gain operatorship, and buy out WPL? Well they could be subject to embargo as a Russian company, under US (or whatever) rules, which could complicate contracting etc. I suspect they would prefer to have Woodside write and sign the contracts etc.

I think there is a fair chance that Woodside might want to get FAR's stake, or at least an option over it. It helps their long term planning. Also if WPL wanted to sell their stake and operatorship, it would be more valuable if it couldn't be interrupted with a vote against by their partners. So I think that WPL will be viewing their stake as being more valuable at safely over the 39%, and acquiring FAR's stake, or a large part of it, is the best option.

Expand

I don't believe WPL can PE their %.
IF no other JV partner....which is only Petrosen as FAR are in default can't PE IMO, then WPL will have to take the whole lot on the same terms and conditions.

FAR Price at posting: 1.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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