After the idea of a CR has been thrown about today I thought I...

After the idea of a CR has been thrown about today I thought I would run the ruler over a few things and try and discover if this idea could at all be likely....after all, its important to be aware of all possibilities

Since beginning in early April 2014...

Fan-1 was drilled to 1200m where it cased and moved to SNE-1, moved back to Fan-1 on 15/05

After 12 or so days of maintenance

Fan-1 drilling resumed and by 30/06 had got to 3000m before more maintenance was required again...(45 days taken to drill 1800m and carry out maintenance of about 2 weeks)

28/07 drilling resumed from 3000m (after a further 28 days of maintenance)

28/08 well was at 4400m with oil recovered...(CE drilling at about 50-70m per day)

maintenace delays expected to cost FAR 24.2m for the total program


the total program was expected to cost 200m
Cairn is funding the first 80m thereafter FAR will pay their share (120m*15% OR 18m)

total delays so far about (6 weeks) likely to have cost 6m to FAR...which comes into line for the CE costing around 800k per day

What sort of delay can we assume has gone on due to the additional sampling and testing?
With the CE having been over the well site for 50 days now since the oil samples on 28th Aug at 4400m

We have only gone to about 4900m.....the CE has been drilling at roughly 70m per day

It would be ok to assume so far, the CE has been at FAN-1 for 30 days longer than it should be, and counting....

therefore, based on the earlier maintenance cost over runs, you could assume the 24.2m cost of the wells has now blown out to about 30m and assuming that extra testing is necessary as SNE-1.....we are getting ever so close to the 42m of cash we hold

Im tired, my estimates could be wrong, but I have gone back over all the announcements and made these calculations myself, with a few assumptions, but you get the idea..

for me now, a CR ann wont come as a surprise