FLN 0.00% 18.0¢ freelancer limited

A lot of uninformed speculation here. Escrow results boosted...

  1. 830 Posts.
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    A lot of uninformed speculation here.
    Escrow results boosted last year's growth due to a bubble in Chinese domain values.
    As SCCF points out, many of those traders likely have reason to keep a low profile, such as if they were using Escrow to get money out of China...
    Remember, the Escrow business was bought for $10m. It is a 'nice to have' add on that greases the wheels of commerce between buyers and sellers, including those in the freelance marketplace who are seeking some added security in payments.

    The freelance market place is the main part of the business. It showed declining growth last quarter, and flat growth this quarter. Management commentary said this was due to a failed change to the website hoping to make it easier to post jobs (one click job posting). It had the unintended consequence of lowering the conversion rate. I'm not privy to info on this, but I imagine that when a new employer currently posts a job, they need to answer a bunch of questions which helps flesh out their requirement and gather information to suitably qualify the work required.

    I can imagine a 'one-click' process might have goosed the number ups a bit, but made it much harder for freelancers to successfully bid because the required information wasn't present - so fewer jobs were filled, or in their words, longer term conversions dipped.

    The market had been valuing FLN on the basis of ongoing growth in the core business, plus a nice little cherry on top from Escrow.

    The changes to the KYC rules took the wind out of Chinese domains, so the cherry was removed.
    And at the same time, the changes to 'one-click' caused a growth pause on the core marketplace. This has caused the business to be dramatically revalued, as if the growth cannot be resumed.

    Luckily, astute investors will have listened to management, who have explicitly stated growth in the mobile conversions - that use the same marketplace but didn't have the 'one-click' experiment - were unaffected, so we can be very confident that reversing the 'one-click' will remove the growth pause.

    The market is waiting to see the next quarter result to make sure that assertion is true. If proved correct, the price will pop up.
    I'm happily buying at these prices, as we have all the information we need to understand the assertion is true, as the directors wouldn't be buying if they were being economical with the truth and growth wasn't returning.

    It is rare to have such a slam-dunk opportunity, but I am pleased to have seen it.

    As for comments about losses and staffing up thread, they are hot air.
    The business is managed to be break even with marketing costs increased to reflect higher profits so all income is directed back into growth. The trivial profit or loss of $500k is academic, they have no debt and $30m in the bank.
    Similarly with staff costs.
    I work near FLN head office and they have many, many young programmers spending their days improving the service, adding features and working to grow the business.
    All signs point toward a management team that wish to see manifold growth, not cutting costs to halt growth but produce a modest profit.

    After all, they have a platform that can accommodate 2 times, or 5 times or 10 times as much revenue with almost no additional OPEX - wouldn't you want to fill up that capacity with more customers?

    Otherwise it is like an empty toll road charging a $20 toll for 3 trucks a day when they could charge a $4 toll and have 20,000 cars drive through every morning.
 
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