Would someone like to post their guess about our downside with this stock if everything goes poorly? Assume that they don't improve earnings and maybe that they even run a small earnings loss for a year.
My guess is that the worst case for this stock would be to trade down to about 80% of the tangible book value. That implies about 75% loss from the current trading price, quite steep actually.
Let me stress I think earnings are going higher, not lower. I see both short term tactical issues (like controlling losses in the one business that was bleeding last year) to send the earnings higher, as well as strategic long term reasons to drive earnings higher (NBN!). I still want to understand the worst case.
SSM Price at posting:
26.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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