Zinc Price May Jump More Than 50% in Five Years, Macquarie Says
By Feiwen Rong
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Refined zinc prices may climb by more than 50 percent in the next five years as growth in mine supply slows and leads to a global shortage of the metal used to galvanize steel, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.
London Metal Exchange zinc for immediate delivery may average $1.50 a pound ($3,307 a metric ton) in 2013, according to a report today by the bank's London-based analysts led by Jim Lennon. That's 25 percent more than previously forecast, and compares with the May 2 settlement price of $2,193.50 a ton.
Rapid supply growth in the near term notwithstanding, ``lower zinc prices and difficulty in securing financing are likely to limit zinc mine production growth in the longer-term, from 2010 onwards,'' Macquarie said. There could be a shortage of refined zinc by 2011 ``which could become extremely large by 2012,'' it said.
LME aluminum for immediate delivery may rise to $1.40 a pound ($3,086 a ton) in 2012, up 17 percent from an earlier forecast, the report said. The metal, used in automobiles, planes and beverage cans, settled at $2,876.50 on May 2.
There's no real tightness for aluminum this year despite power-related production problems in China and South Africa, the Macquarie report said.
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