Actually, thinking about it...California's yield for the past 10 years have just been erratic at best. Nothing that I could seriously correlate with the drought. In fact, the drought years are the best yield years compared to the past 5 years! And yes, they've been relying on groundwater to survive during these years of drought. So, what if drought ends? Will that significantly improve their production? I think that the farmers who got bitten during this drought will think twice before committing more money to their orchards, which will dampen the supply reaction to water availability.
California Production Average Yield For past 10 years (Pounds/acre):
FY15: 2150
FY14: 2360
FY13: 2310
FY12: 2540
FY11: 2130
FY10: 1880
FY09: 2300
FY08: 2170
FY07: 1840
FY06: 1550
In the face of almost doubling of supply of almonds from California over the years, almond prices have gone up, which confirms that the price action is telling us that demand has picked up and supply is just barely meeting demand.
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