California Weather, page-22

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oslo

5,687 Posts.

12/02/16

21:30

Post #: 17009529
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Originally posted by joewolf ↑

All comments are welcome - I just know S from another stock.

I get what you are saying but strangely enough the other share that s and i comment on also had a crisis that effected the share price and the company had to recover from that. The gap for me is the following:

1. Given the fact that this company got into a serious financial position before I would want them to be ultra conservative - capital protection these days exceeds the need for dividends - the alternatives are 2% in the bank so if they paid out 30c last year the share price probably may not have hit the high but it would probably still have hit $9.00.
2. In agri - I expect the worst and hope for the best - So I normalise profits - I think that last year was a great result but really dont expect it repeated every year. I prefer them banking the money especially given that the dividend was unfranked. We probably missed the best and cheapest opportunity in the Timbercorp era when we had no funds to acquire the plantations.
3. I think this management team is great and has totally transformed the company but I worry about co-gen and moving outside of what we do. I understand vertical integration and the rest but there is a glut of electricity producing assets and its suggested that over the next 5 years batteries will be just as disruptive to it as Solar was.
4. I believe in constant improvement. They could step the dividend each year and rather have a huge available facility level. Agri cycles are a huge concern for me. They have undone many a management team.
5. Markets have very long memories 2011 and 2012 are not that far away.

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California weather looking good:

https://www.agra-net.com/agra/foodn...assists-almond-bloom-in-california-506345.htm

Combined with the over planting of almond crops now reaching production age almond prices will be under pressure going forward.

SHV Price at posting: $4.68 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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