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Quest09

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18/10/23

07:08

Post #: 70396123
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Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

Estimated Value of CE1's Proved Reserves (1P) for Brooks & Thorsby Assets (note: these are my calculations only. DYOR)

IMO, Estimated Value of CE1's Proved Reserves (1P) for Brooks & Thorsby Assets = AUD$2.07 billion dollars.

I recently posted about my calculations on the estimated value of CE1's Proved Reserves (1P) within the Brooks asset. Now updating that to include 1P Reserves for the Brooks and Thorsby assets. Also adjusting the oil price used to make the calculation (now using US$85.00 per barrel of oil).

As a source for the CE1's Proved Reserves for Brooks and Thorsby assets, I found the below announcement (note: PDP in the below image shows Proved & Developed Reserves, but i am aiming to calculate the value of Proved Reserves (1P) even if not yet developed).
Audited 1P Reserves for Brooks and Thorsby = 15.6 million barrels of oil.

Calculation

CE1 Proven Reserves (1P, Brooks and Thosby) = 15.6 million barrels of oil.
Oil Price Used for Calculation = US$85.00 per barrel

Est Value of 1P Reserves = 15,600,000 barrels x US$85.00 per barrel

Est Values of 1P Reserves = US$1.326 billion (US$1,326,000,000)

Converted to AUD = AUD$2.07 billion dollars (AUD$2,077,718,682)

CE1 current Market Cap = ~AUD$55 million dollars.

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Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

So if boe = barrels of oil equivalent, i wonder if my above calculation has already accounted for the for the mix in oil and gas produced by CE1 ( ~ 66% oil, and ~34% gas).

The reason they use this measure (boe) is to standardise the unit of production for companies that produce both oil and gas. I wonder is this standardised unit can translate into a standardised price for both boe and and bbl, meaning that the price of 1 barrel of oil equivalent (boe) is equal to 1 standard barrel of oil (bbl).

Or maybe you would need to calculate the price separately (i.e. AUD$2.07 billion x 0.66 = AUD$1.37 billion)

Meaning, IMO estimated value of CE1's Proved Reserves (1P) for Brooks and Thorsby Assets (oil only) = AUD$1.37 billion

Expand

Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

A valid contribution, Dan.

Whilst NPV is a useful tool in reflecting and standardising the value of an undeveloped/unrealised future asset, it would not be possible to accurately calculate the NPV without detailed knowledge of cash inflows and cash outflows in relation to the asset (something that an investor who is external to the company's board would not have easy access to).

As a result, I intentionally did not present my calculations as reflective of a standardised NPV.

I also intentionally showed how I arrived at my figures so that any reader could/would make their own judgments in relation to the presented figures.

Thanks.

Expand

Additionally, regarding the cost of extracting the resource, we could potentially use CE1's current Gross Profit margin as a guide.

If i remember correctly, CE1 is currently running at ~68% gross profit.

CE1 Price at posting: 9.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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