CE1 oil is valued in WCS, not WTI. It is currently trading...

First 6 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
cokelator

527 Posts.

101

09/10/23

17:53

Post #: 70251474
Share

Originally posted by Quest09: ↑

Estimated Value of CE1's Proved Reserves (1P) for Brooks & Thorsby Assets (note: these are my calculations only. DYOR)

IMO, Estimated Value of CE1's Proved Reserves (1P) for Brooks & Thorsby Assets = AUD$2.07 billion dollars.

I recently posted about my calculations on the estimated value of CE1's Proved Reserves (1P) within the Brooks asset. Now updating that to include 1P Reserves for the Brooks and Thorsby assets. Also adjusting the oil price used to make the calculation (now using US$85.00 per barrel of oil).

As a source for the CE1's Proved Reserves for Brooks and Thorsby assets, I found the below announcement (note: PDP in the below image shows Proved & Developed Reserves, but i am aiming to calculate the value of Proved Reserves (1P) even if not yet developed).
Audited 1P Reserves for Brooks and Thorsby = 15.6 million barrels of oil.

Calculation

CE1 Proven Reserves (1P, Brooks and Thosby) = 15.6 million barrels of oil.
Oil Price Used for Calculation = US$85.00 per barrel

Est Value of 1P Reserves = 15,600,000 barrels x US$85.00 per barrel

Est Values of 1P Reserves = US$1.326 billion (US$1,326,000,000)

Converted to AUD = AUD$2.07 billion dollars (AUD$2,077,718,682)

CE1 current Market Cap = ~AUD$55 million dollars.

Expand

CE1 oil is valued in WCS, not WTI. It is currently trading around ~US$60 not US$85. Also, I believe 40% of that 1P BoE is gas, which is only worth around a quarter of real oil.

Also, valuation should include operational cost (drilling, royalties, etc). My optimistic thumbsuck at current oil price is ~$10 per BoE. Minus management costs, the 1P is probably worth ~US$70m with 10% discount rate.

Of course, if management pulled another Montney, it may as well be worth ~AU$12m. If we are lucky.

CE1 Price at posting: 8.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
11 Upvote

4 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 019 – Dreaming of the 9,000s

What is going on here? Watch out for DroneShield, Pure Hydrogen, and Nel ASA

ASX Market Close: Fading miners drag bourse as iron ore price slumps | July 25

ASE

Astute delivers high-grade lithium hits at Red Mountain

Rokeby, BHM, more: The 10 hot stocks HotCopper users watchlisted in Week 30

FTL

Firetail scoops up untested land around Excelsior – including juicy mineralisation target

SGQ

St George banks $5M from placement to ramp up Araxá Rare Earths Project

Friday's HotCopper trends: Renascor concentrate, Larvotto raise | July 25

RNU

Renascor produces graphite concentrate at Siviour, right on time to meet ex-China demand

Most investors will get this earnings season wrong. Will you?

First 6 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

CE1 oil is valued in WCS, not WTI. It is currently trading...

Top Stories

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 019 – Dreaming of the 9,000s

What is going on here? Watch out for DroneShield, Pure Hydrogen, and Nel ASA

ASX Market Close: Fading miners drag bourse as iron ore price slumps | July 25

Astute delivers high-grade lithium hits at Red Mountain

Rokeby, BHM, more: The 10 hot stocks HotCopper users watchlisted in Week 30

Firetail scoops up untested land around Excelsior – including juicy mineralisation target

St George banks $5M from placement to ramp up Araxá Rare Earths Project

Friday's HotCopper trends: Renascor concentrate, Larvotto raise | July 25

Renascor produces graphite concentrate at Siviour, right on time to meet ex-China demand

Most investors will get this earnings season wrong. Will you?

Featured News