Price Drivers Gold & Silver – Sometimes the power of sophisticated markets can be underestimated. Take a heavyweight fund with a little too much testosterone and a clever wit who goes heavily short of 24 tonnes of gold [7,800 contracts] on COMEX, then sells a good chunk of physical gold in the physical market at a time when the physical gold market is quiet and force the gold price through supports below $1,730 and you have the price tumbling back to nearly $1,700. The sad part is that if this trader was not nimble on his feet and closed his shorts out at those low levels [leaving those who sold through triggered stop losses at lower levels still] the steady buyers, such as central banks and Asian buyers, moved in to pick up the physical gold sold at the low prices. This left any remaining open short positions exposed and only able to cover at prices well above the lows. The subsequent scramble may well see the gold price rising above the point it fell from. After all, the only gold, those caught with their shorts down, can buy will have to come from new sellers at higher prices! We are therefore not surprised that the gold price has recovered to just $6 below the point it fell from even before New York opens.
Such trading actions don’t change the market trend because they rely on the momentum patterns allowing them to have an added impact as traders react just that little bit too late and add to the falls, without the capacity to stay longer term to ride the recovery as well. That’s why longer term investors are in a better nervous condition than traders. [Subscribe to our newsletters at www.GoldForecaster.comand www.SilverForecaster.com]
Strangely, such trades do test the market’s robustness. The speed with which the recovery happens testifies to the underlying demand. Traders then realize more is to be made on the long side of the market and take their places accordingly..
Silver – Silver ignored the trader’s play in gold and has held its ground.
