Hi all,
Began building my position in VIV today - challenging stock to accumulate given its low liquidity /inter-day volume. Will continue to build over the coming days and weeks.
I'm initially approaching this as a value / growth hybrid play: shorter-term, with FY18 revenue backlog of $4.3M, I am forecasting full FY18 revenue of $7M - $8M. Consequently, the company fundamentally looks cheap. Struggled to ascertain EBITDA margins, but I suspect the company is operating off margins close to 30%. Hence, while the company may not reach profitability break-even until FY19; if, in FY18, they generate $2.1M in EBITDA, and given most hardware / software SaaS players operate off an EV/ EBITDA multiple of 15x - 20x, we could anticipate FY18 revenue numbers to justify a valuation of 5.8 cents or 31% premium. However, as the company as indicated - rebranding, market repositioning, product development and finalisation have all been completed - now is time for 'scale-up'. With the energy cost savings, efficiency stats, data analytics, and full solution offering already in-place, I anticipate CY18 to be a transformative year for VIV. Consequently, I am also entering from a growth thematic. Underpinning VIV's demand is the growing cost of energy (which naturally will continue to rise due to the economic principle of relative scarcity); to be able to offer large enterprise conglomerates a plug-and-play solution that materially benefits their bottom line in a hyper-competitive globalised landscape is incredibly valuable. The further partnerships with CIRSO and Honeywell should further extends VIV's lighting solution competitive advantages.
Ultimately; I see VIV as being under the radar at the moment, and as Phillip Fisher quoted 'dished an unfavourable appraisal by the financial community'. But he also went on to state that; 'the financial community is fickle, and an ability to recognise deviations between a markets appraisal of a stock (i.e. investors sentiment towards that stock) and its underlying value (fundamental proponents) will often generate abnormal returns'.
The upcoming quarterly should act as a catalyst for a share price re-rate.
Looking forward to the years ahead.
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