call to investor relations, page-39

i'd say sparcs dilution is partiallt factored in. the sp might vary by 1-2c range up or down from current position depending on exact outcome.
examples:
1. will dbct announcement be before(+ve) or after sparcs (-ve)
2. will dbct be positive, neutral, negative
3. exact amount converted
(a) no converion(+ve), virtually impossibe, but all could rollover if sales updates indicate cash is available say june 2010.
(b) partial conversion(+ve), some chose to rollover short or long term.
(c) full conversion (-ve), all holders accept conversion.

i'd say the market has factored in full conversion, but due to hope of DBCT timing and some hope that full conversion will not occur, we are trading at a premium. i'd expect a fall 2c fall if dbct isnt announce and conversion is >80%.

i think its important to remember that the sp is 6c currently. under best case scenario, dbct is announced at 100% circa $2.7bil prior to conversion. That would add $800mil to NAV, which with 2.5bil shares on issue means an increase of about 32c/share(to nav).

but we are trading at a huge discount to NAV, so that discount should continue. currently we are trading at under 20% of nav, so 32c*20%=6c.

i suspect we will be lucky to gain 6c(100%). this is further supported by the fact that sparcs will then dilute that increased nav back to where we started pre-dbct sale.

furthermore, nobody will pay circa 20c per bbi with any beppa dilution hanging over our heads. imagine buying bbi at 20c today only to be told tomorrow that beppa are converting at 3-4xBBI. that threat of dilution will seriously prevent any upside above 10-12c per bbi.

so in summary, dont expect huge gains in BBI, but be happy with 3-6c in short term. after all thats still a 50-100% gain on todays prices.

QUESTION for Helen: When will BBI finally deny any Beppa conversion rumours and let BBI be unleashed to realise its full potential. I guess they cant deny until after DBCT sells.