Keeping it simple here.
Comes down to the depositional environmnt & tectonic stresses/ compaction at play at the time (millions of years ago) for the 2 formations in question.
So we end up with different sediments transported, deposited, compressed & compacted over time, in a constantly changing envt with different cementing matrix & spacing between the grains (referred to as porosity).
Should these grains b interconnected then u can expect a flowrate. What matters more is the pores need to b well connected & have gas/water present in them. Also with depth u inherit pressure as well (tectonic or insitu).
As they werent able to run the 7" liner all the way to bottom or log this section with wireline logs, my view is that the PLover was getting squeezed in (hence the rationale to run a 4.5" liner). This could also mean more silt:sand ratio.
They got little gas to flow to surface, alibet at a non-comm rates or as one would have reported, RTSTM (rate too small to measure). Surface pressure is 14.7 psia, so this would just have bubbled through in a water bucket.
Plover formation has flowed in this area albiet at shallower depths & similar sort of depths in the Browse basin.
As for CO2 we will have to live with that, as Blkwood#1 also had similar gas ratio (ie apprx 35% CO2, 65% C1).
IMO, the upper zone sands prolly have a better chance of flowing, if the porosity & permeability is good & HC's r present. A thin sand frm the Frigate formation had flowed at H#2, b4 the well caved in as no liner was run there.
Will b interesting to see how much of the 7" lined section is perforated. If we get a good gasflow then expect a relief rally & a decision in 60 days about the nxt Heron well, if not then ENI can opt to withdraw (refer their ASX farmin doc 18/5/11). Note the drilling hasnt cost MEO any capital.
Also, by Jan 5th ENI has to decide whether they r going ahead with BW#2 drill or not. One thing's for sure, it will b anintense week ahead with Gurame's Baong sands & HS#1's Frigate sands awaiting perforation.
All the best chaps.
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