Calling It (Biden for the Win)

Ok, for giggles I'm gonna call it. Note the time stamp (late afternoon (WST), Friday 6 Nov).

Biden for the Win, by a healthy EV margin.

As I type this missive Biden (253 EV) is leading Trump (214 EV). These numbers exclude Arizona (11 EV), which several outlets are already calling for Biden, including ABC News here in Oz. This should explain any slight reported difference compared to your preferred news outlet.

There are currently 5 x battleground states hanging in the balance, being:

• Georgia (16 EV, >98% est. reported).
• North Carolina (15 EV, 95% est. reported).
• Pennsylvania (20 EV, 95% est. reported).
• Arizona (11 EV, 90% est. reported).
• Nevada (6 EV, 89% est. reported)

(Alaska (3 EV, 63% est. reported) is is also outstanding, but is considered safe for Trump.)

Based on current trends, I think:

• Biden will win Georgia* (comfortably, 16 EV), Pennsylvania (comfortably, 20 EV), and Arizona (narrowly, 11 EV).
• Trump will win North Carolina (comfortably, 15 EV), Nevada (narrowly, 6 EV), and Alaska (comfortably, 3 EV).

This would take Biden to 300 EV and Trump to 238 EV - a comfortable 56% majority of the electoral college votes.

Let's see how close I get.

(*As I write this Ga. is currently razor-thin, having narrowed in Biden's favour. Not much effort calling it for Biden, as absentee trend in his favour is expected to continue.)

Data Source: The New York Times' excellent coverage.