I believe Shaw’s have this week re-visited both AMU and ARW.. I...

I believe Shaw’s have this week re-visited both AMU and ARW..

I believe Shaw’s POV on AMU 1H result was basically:

EBITDA, cash flow strong, profit dragged down by high D&A (amortisation).
Target $1.60.
Note Amortisation issue ($6.4M) is purely non cash and is only related to dispute over whether 1P or 2P reserves should be used for D&A figures.

AMU have stated that the first of 5 back to back wells at Lavaca is 2/3 to TD (these wells are sim to hoffer that was connected up Jan 4th (so not in last half results) that is currently spinning off US$16k/day (6M/yr), polymer treatments that stopped over the winter wet season about to begin another 30 min to be done, 2 rigs concurrently drilling is the plan I believe,
I believe also they are working on a rig for the Grosse Tette wildcats (2 this cal year) which could add anything from 25-500Bcf (another words start at hoffer size, work up to 20 times bigger).. oil workovers continuing, gas and oil both hedged (upwards) for another 18 months (and if the current oil spike continues may well lock in higher again)

Other issues are the sentiment towards virtually all the oilers. (expect this to swing rapidly now oil looks to stabilise above $60b.) and

ARW.

With Fed government now spruiking green friendly budget there is a lot more confidence the biofuels rebate saga may be resolved favourably for ARW.
30 days production for fed govt grant also on track. Contamination issues resolved, some possibility that US environment may be turning positive for ARW and ongoing negotiations over takeoff contracts looking positive. New management firmly bedded down. AND costs appearing to be tackled proactively finally so as to position ARW well down the curve compared with virtually all the other biofuels co’s that’s are NON tallow based (ie facing significant cost increases from feedstock competition .. note this is not an issue for ARW)

Also some suggestion from what I’ve heard that 3 rd plant in aust may be back under consideration.. from what the co. indicated previously.. TPI had an interest in this..???

All up superficially the charts look awful..(check BPT, NXS, AZA etc ) but.. other indicators are as pointed out, perhaps at pivot.

Based on all this … now hopeful buy signal advancing.

My opinion only

DYOR