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8.3¢ mirabela nickel limited

Calm down its still a going concern, page-13

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bthotcop

7,922 Posts.

25/09/15

21:12

Post #: 16064036
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Originally posted by tomboy ↑

Its still doesnt make sense.
If cash is low then call a CR from eager Wellington of BCEE. If they spent $20M buying shares at 12.5c they will buy more at 10c surely as they have done their DD and found this is a safe and stable investment with free cashflow like the CEO said. That's what they wanted, cheap shares or better CN terms.

If they refuse then they will :-
- not get cheap shares
- they will lose their $23M & $6M shares bought on market at ~12.5c average
- they will lose the whole mine & all bond financing as potential funding creditors
- they will be drawn & quartered & humiliated as their Due Diligence was wholly wrong
- fund managers will be sacked, that's a $30M loss of cash
- US NHs face losing $500M of their bonds and cash also in a liquidation
- The OZ LTHs who lost 98% of their shares now lose the 2% left plus all those they bought since reopen
- MBN as a mine will be shuttered and all jobs lost if it cannot operate at todays large profit margins
- Brasil as an investment destination will be ignored by OZ US & chinese investors
- President Rousseff will be impeached & coup de tat in brasil
- there will be riots in Santa rita district & crime will go nuts if these 600 workers & 500 others are sacked.
- this would defeat the whole purpose of devaluing the BRL, to support exporters like MBN

The Board couldn't get finance terms they wanted for ST cash liquidity and ran its cash into the ground without notice.
So this is not an insolvency on debt defaults, high debt or loss production at all. It can trade its way out on this COP v NP. This is why its shocking and unexpected.

If the administrator decides to keep the mine going and not sack staff that means he thinks it is profit producing and can build cash on its own or recapitalise it with a white knight and restructure finance in DOCA 2.0 or sell it as a going concern.

If the chinese, yanks and Brasilians are told we are shutting the mine and selling it for $100M there will be blood on the streets. Norilsk & Votorantim both tried to screw MBN before and take it over and the yanks saved it and turned it around so now the truth will come out. They are all forced to show their hands this way.

Almost all liquidations have been due to high debt, incapacity to pay loans, bond defaults. A profitable business with no loan debt is not normally liquidated but may be sold off with debt discharged but in our case there is no current debt. If the yanks wanted this they would never have put in $100M in 2014 or sought the DOCA 1.0 at all nor got CNs for future shares..again it doesn't make sense.

I think this is what we are heading for

DOCA 2.0 with terms:-
- recap with $25M loan or shares
- profitable production continues for months with cashflow rising
- new offtake agreements (chinese would be desperate to avoid MBN stopping shipments)
- banco bradesco $50M refinanced with junk bonds
- current CN of $48M refinanced by new CN
- administration proceeds for a while as cash is still building

MBN comes out with less debt, more cash, not much dilution, and reopens with Ferriers & the white knight being the heros. Im praying for this.

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gee wiz tb,

You are not the only one praying for that outcome.
Stick to your guns dude.

I think that I may even book a flight to Brazil, just to see the "riots in Santa rita district".
Write it off on tax as an investment trip while I still can.

(blurb blaa sip gulp)

MBN Price at posting: 8.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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