Hi Entropylord
Yes, it's possible that in isolation, the 'A' sands may not be viable as a gas stripping/condensate project, but i wouldn't think that this is the issue or Nexus' concern.
It seems, Nexus knew they were punting on hitting the A sands at the Crux-2 location, yet they seem confident of intersecting them elsewhere. Why??? In their first announcement after drilling through the expected upper zone, they stated that they would consider drilling a side-track to a location where they could clearly see both A & B on seismic in the same location. To me, this suggested they couldn't clearly see the A sands at Crux-2.
So back to the viablility of the A Sands. It is obviously Nexus' intention to intersect both zones at their producing wells via the one bore?? Providing they can do this, then the A sands will be contributing bonus production for no extra expenditure as its higher up the casing anyway and therefore would be adding significant relevence to the project as a whole.
WilsonHTM have released on their website some updated commentary on the CRUX-2 situation and Nexus' valuation. They are still confident that CRUX-2 will be a viable producer via the B sands and that they expect the commercialisation of CRUX to go ahead after all appraisal work. They believe a 60mmbbls resource is closer to the mark as they think the Side-track would have to chase the A & B sands roughly 1km from the CRUX-2 location (half way between CRUX-1 and 2).
They have a target of $1.45, they see no immediate funding issues as Nexus can sufficiently cover the side-track costs and SHELL will be paying for the Appraisal work at Echuca.
This week should be interesting for Nexus.
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