Honeywell at Coverndyne is full until 2028 (see HERE) and I...

Honeywell at Coverndyne is full until 2028 (see HERE) and I guess Port hope will also be in a similar space. Orano is also increasing its conversion facilities (see and buy from Russia HERE). The fact is that western conversion facilities are full and it will probably take about 2/3 years to increase capacity (i.e 2026) - this is a temporary bottleneck. No doubt utilities already have booked slots at Port Hope and Coverndyne but when these are filled the utilities have little incentive to buy more U3O8 since they can't get it converted and enriched to produce fuel bundles, Same goes for HALEU the Centrus facility need LEU (4.8%) - they will no doubt have slots for the next 2/3 years but are restricted to what they already have booked to meet feedstock requirements for their 900kg/yr operation. IMO any additional HALEU over the next 2/3 years will have to come from downblending (done at BWXT - who are the only ones who have a cat 1 license or INL). To me his means the pressure will be on conversion - Urenco and Orano have already authorized more enrichment but as always this will take time (LEU is essential feedstock to the Centrus HALEU plant).

As I see it lack of conversion facilities is the likely bottle neck and will constrain U3O8 price growth in the interim (until more capacity comes online). It will be interesting to see if worldwide demand for nuclear fuel re-adjusts for Russia friendly nations (i.e India/China) to re-sell their western enrichment/conversion slots (at a marginal profit) to western utilities to backfill with Russian conversion/enrichment - i guess we will see - sanctions are usually a zero sum game designed to move margins from thwe target (i.e Russia) to the middle men (India/China) - that's what's happening now to Russian oil (i.e India/China making money at Russia's expense)