Hi donedeal, my apology for overlooking your question earlier.
I suppose one should study prevailing events (current developments as opposed to mining boom era) to gauge any pricing impact upon a successful mine equity deal for Mbalam-Nabeba. We can look at a combination of green-field, stranded resources in Africa (Wologisi) as well as production resource in the Pilbara (Chichester hub good for 90MTA but with lower grade and higher impurities than SDL DSO).
I have faith in the Cameroon government in finalizing a good mine funding/equity outcome and I doubt they have not been keeping a close eyes on developments in Wologisi on the one hand - $5 Billion of perks is nothing to sneeze at and on the other hand the Hebei / Fortescue deal that has fallen through - or more specifically that FMG knocked back).
Needless to say a stranded resource in Africa (based on conventional wisdom - although strange things do happen) would be expected to fetch a fraction of a production resource in the Pilbara.
A 20% stake in the Chichester hub for $2 Billion has been widely been reported in the media for months. Some quoted $4 Billion including a stake in the infrastructure.
Obviously Mbalam-Nabeba is a stranded resource in Africa (a ready-to-go tier-1 resource unlike Wologisi which is just an exploration target) but has the Chinese very excited.
On the other hand, a Chichester hub minority stake won't buy China a board seat, nor China the right to dictate future expansion plans. FMG can freeze further expansion and just ramp up the Solomon hub instead.
I suppose the only one who can answer your question is the Chinese SOE who will take equity in Mbalam-Nabeba. Hebei ? Wuhan ? Who knows.
SDL Price at posting:
1.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held