The arguments continue, somewhat like the characters of one of our favs.
After reviewing the article, here is my 2 cents worth. I have been transparent and given both positive and negative thoughts.
The Guardian Post Cameroon article titled, "When CPDM Ministers Squabble in Public," highlights internal conflicts within Cameroon’s ruling party, the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM), focusing on public disputes among ministers. These tensions, set against the backdrop of the 2025 presidential election and ongoing national challenges, could influence the CPDM’s unity and Cameroon’s political stability. Additionally, the Mbalam-Kribi project—a major infrastructure initiative involving Bestway Finance and AustSino—intersects with these dynamics, as its success or failure could impact the government’s credibility and economic prospects. Below is an overview of likely outcomes, incorporating the Mbalam-Kribi project, with positive and negative perspectives.Background Context
The CPDM, under President Paul Biya (92 years old as of April 2025), faces internal strife as ministers publicly clash, possibly over power, influence, or succession. With the 2025 election looming, party unity is critical, especially amid crises like the Anglophone conflict and Boko Haram insurgency. The Mbalam-Kribi project, a $10 billion initiative to build a 540-km railway from the Mbalam iron ore mine to the port of Kribi, plus a mineral terminal, is a flagship economic endeavour spearheaded by Bestway Finance (Hong Kong-based, founded in 2020) and AustSino Resources Group (a Chinese-Australian firm, delisted from the Australian Stock Exchange in 2020) are key partners, tasked with constructing the railway and terminal to export over 100 million tons of iron ore annually. However, the project has faced controversies, including legal disputes with Sundance Resources, the original developer, which claims its assets were illegally expropriated.
Likely Outcomes and Perspectives
Positive Views
CPDM Reforms and Project Boost
Outcome: Public disputes could push the CPDM to reform internally, while the Mbalam-Kribi project’s progress might bolster the party’s image.
Reasoning: Resolving ministerial conflicts could lead to a stronger, more unified CPDM, especially if Biya leverages his recent central committee restructuring (March 2025) to quell dissent. Meanwhile, the Mbalam-Kribi project, with Bestway Finance announcing $9.3 billion in funding and a transformation unit by August 2024, could deliver economic gains, with first iron ore exports expected by late 2024. This could create over 20,000 jobs, enhancing the CPDM’s electoral appeal.
Impact: A revitalized CPDM, backed by a successful project, could dominate the 2025 election, using state mechanisms like ELECAM to secure victory.
Public Engagement and Economic Growth
Outcome: Ministerial squabbles might increase political awareness, while the Mbalam-Kribi project could drive economic development.
Reasoning: Public disputes may encourage Cameroonians to demand better governance, aligning with Biya’s unity rhetoric. Simultaneously, the project’s infrastructure—linking Mbalam to Kribi—could position Cameroon as a mining hub in the CEMAC zone, with Bestway Finance and AustSino promising a mineral terminal to handle massive iron ore volumes. A related steel complex in Kribi, backed by Bestway’s $50 billion FCFA investment, could lower steel costs and create jobs.
Impact: Increased public engagement and economic growth could strengthen support for the CPDM, provided the project delivers on its promises.
Biya’s Control and Project Stability
Outcome: Biya could use the disputes to reassert authority, while the Mbalam-Kribi project’s framework stabilizes under government oversight.
Reasoning: Biya might sideline feuding ministers, reinforcing his leadership. The project, with contracts signed in 2022 and feasibility studies validated by KPMG, has a complete administrative framework, binding Bestway and AustSino to deliver. Despite past delays, the government’s commitment, alongside Bestway’s funding assurances, suggests progress.
Impact: Biya’s strengthened position and a stable project could ensure CPDM continuity, minimizing disruptions during the election.
Negative Views
Party Division and Project Delays
Outcome: Infighting could fracture the CPDM, while the Mbalam-Kribi project might falter, damaging the party’s credibility.
Reasoning: Public disputes may weaken party cohesion, empowering opposition leaders like Maurice Kamto. The Mbalam-Kribi project faces risks, as Bestway Finance and AustSino’s track records are questionable—AustSino has limited mining experience and was delisted, while Bestway, a new entity, lacks transparency on funding. Sundance’s ongoing arbitration against Cameroon (set for January 2025 in Paris) could further delay progress, with Sundance demanding $5.5 billion in damages.
Impact: A divided CPDM and stalled project could lead to electoral losses, as voters and investors lose confidence.
Erosion of Trust and Economic Setbacks
Outcome: Public disillusionment could grow, exacerbated by potential Mbalam-Kribi project failures.
Reasoning: Ministerial squabbles may signal elite disconnect, deepening distrust amid economic and security challenges. The Mbalam-Kribi project’s uncertainties—such as Bestway’s unverified financial capacity and AustSino’s alleged misuse of Sundance’s data—raise doubts about its viability. If the project fails to deliver by 2025, as Sundance did, it could mirror past disappointments, further eroding public faith.
Impact: Declining trust and economic setbacks could boost opposition support, challenging the CPDM’s dominance.
Succession Crisis and Project Fallout
Outcome: Disputes might intensify a succession crisis, while the Mbalam-Kribi project’s legal and financial issues could destabilize Cameroon.
Reasoning: With Biya’s age and no clear successor, ministerial rivalries could escalate post-2025, especially if he steps down. The Mbalam-Kribi project’s legal battles, including Sundance’s claims of expropriation by Cameroon and Bestway’s subsidiary, Sangha Mining, could lead to costly settlements or project cancellation [Web ID: 19]. Bestway and AustSino’s involvement in Congo’s side of the project, where a settlement was reached with Sundance in July 2024, adds complexity [Web ID: 19].
Impact: A succession crisis and project fallout could deepen national instability, potentially worsening regional conflicts.
Conclusion
The CPDM’s internal conflicts, combined with the Mbalam-Kribi project’s trajectory, present a mixed outlook. Positively, the disputes could spur party reforms, and the project’s success could boost the economy, reinforcing CPDM dominance. Negatively, infighting might fracture the party, and the project’s potential failure—due to Bestway and AustSino’s uncertain capabilities and ongoing legal disputes—could undermine trust and stability. The CPDM’s management of these issues, alongside Biya’s leadership decisions, will be pivotal as Cameroon approaches the 2025 election.
Wordy, I know. But I try to keep it real.
