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moorookamick

21,975 Posts.

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22/09/20

09:59

Post #: 47524746
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Originally posted by moorookamick: ↑

.I disagree with you that at present "that are substitutable ie Brazil iron ore or Chinese domestic iron ore "

IMO it will take China at least 10 years to wean itself off Aussie Iron ore and perhaps 5 years to wean itself Aussie met Coals.

Conversely , The USA & the EC produces enormous quantities of dairy & manufactured farm products where the wick can be turned up
within a season to meet Chinese demand and thereby displace NZ from the Chinese markets.

my point above is that China is hitting Aussie farmers for our Governments blatant backing of the Trump anti-China economic war while
NZ is not but in the process has not endangered its role in Anzus or the 5 Eyes Program.

IMO, the measure of all this will be evident in Aus & NZ farm exports to China over the next 12 months.
Theory & opinion is fine but data is king, IMO.

NZ total exports to China are about what our total ag exports which excludes our mega iron ore, coals & LNG just to mention 3.
Also our potental loss of Chinese tourism & Chinese foreign student trade is about 70% of NZs total exports to China.

We'll have to see if Chinese inbound tourism & Chinese foreign student intake to NZ is impacted as much as that to Aus post Covid.

Then and only then can we make a quantitive call, IMO.

My forecast is that NZ China trade will be less impacted that Aus post covidbecause of the respective Governments' China relationship.

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Here is a link to our Aus Ag exports/destination:

https://www.ruralbank.com.au/siteassets/_documents/publications/trade/trade-report-2018-19.pdf

2019 saw increases but we'll have to wait until the stats are available.
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