Can CVN survive on its own?, page-6

Me too.

I think Windsor has made his point about the survival of oil companies from 45 years ago, but are todays small and mid caps the same breed as those around in the 70’s? The BPTs, the CVNs?

As for being good timing, I might suggest quite the converse. I might argue that ASX oilers are given a chance to build on success, eg AWE,NZO and PPP with Tui, ARQ in the Perth basin, CUE at Maari, but that it’s when they fail to follow up that they become seen as squanderers of wealth, and despondency sets in. Then the vultures have come in for either mature assets or for underappreciated new gems. In HDRs case it was after it stumbled badly.

Whilst saying that being cashed up is a good time to take over CVN, Windsor hasn’t even attempted to show that it is when an oiler has been successfully raising cash is when it has typically fallen. I would expect the facts to show completely the converse, that when a management team were easily attracting capital to it’s assets that that would be the most unlikely time of the cycle for a takeover.

It might be hard to argue against the likelihood of an eventual takeover (eg on a 45 year timescale), and this wouldn’t just apply to oilers on the ASX would it, but it seems to me a pretty weak case for a takeover in the short term. Even with the recent CRs I also suspect instos make up a very small minority of the share register (my guess being more HNW individuals than instos), and that most shareholders would atm back AC and his team over a ST gain.

EL