There is some market sentiment that oil will reach $10 but that...

There is some market sentiment that oil will reach $10 but that seems unbelievable. On the other hand $25 does because the median cost of production is $15.

In my opinion the market sentiment for a price recovery is high enough to keep institutional investors faith in higher costs assets which were or would have been competing in the oil market.

The price shock will need be large enough and last long enough to scare off any future potential development of high cost oil reserves.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was another false start similar to the resource boom and a short term recovery followed by another price shock. This spook the market enough to shelve all these high cost projects.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articl...-likely-to-fall-as-supplies-rise-demand-falls