Here R few things to keep in mind.
1.
As there is not much insto support and it is mostly retail and the retail is always misinformed and emotional abt theri decisions, hence we saw capitulation yesterday.Volume hitting 45 million or so.
2.
If we go lower than yesterday bit volume does not come today, then it will be selling exhaustion. However volume so far is already nearing 11 million. But those who wanted to get out wil get out early.
3. Mangement continues to be iffy and may i call v v unwise. They should have come up with the plan and got the banks to extend the loan and a new deal signed with the banking syndicate B4 they came up with the results.
SGH would have been trading north of 1 dollar.
3.
Write downs is a papaer loss and provides cushion for not to pay any tax in coming 3-5 yrs.
Retail just sees the headline numbers and does not understand what and why of it and runs to the exit . hence sell off yesterday.
4.
Bnaks would have pulled the plug if they wanted to by this time. They wont.
5.
Major INFORMED support for SGH stock can come only after the banking syndicate accepts the plan and extends the agreement although they cant withdraw the loan facility till April 2017.
6.
Major restructuring and OPEX will happen for UK business and we can see a turn around in second half numbers itself when they R presented in August 2016.
7.
Redundancies R not happening in UK overnight is my guess and they will be phased and natural attrition . so cost if any of redundancies will be spread out and wont break the bank.
8.
Looking at some consolidation for the time being and slow recovery and then may be big leap after bank syndiacte extends the laon agreement and OPEX announced and then big one upside in August on presentation of numbers.
9.
Increased my psotion size from 99999 to 105999.
Average approx .132.
Come August nymbers, this can be hit in a heart beat when market sees SGH on recovery path.
I am personally v much against loan in sharemarket and that too in risky stocks . one got to be v careful and do only what suits u and not what some one else is doing or saying. Bye for now.
SGH Price at posting:
32.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held