can someone calculate how much we are worth?, page-2

Very encouraging news following BPT's results, brokers reports and the companies presentations last couple of days.

I'll just highlight 2 key points.

#1 BPT gas price achieved in 2011 already circa $5.30/GJ.
MD today was talking about gas shortage on East Coast looming earlier around 2013-2015. Indications from major users looking to negotiate now are already talking at the $6/GJ mark. BPT MD expects to see gas price at $6 to $9/GJ.
Circa $6-8 was also mentioned by a most respected oil+gas analyst.
Fact is - we are no longer at the $4/GJ mark!!! We are well north and likely to see that double this side of 2015.
The LNG projects do not have enough gas, the CB conventional gas surplus is now directed towards the LNG projects - BPT is now taking its sweet time negotiating a better price for its surplus CB gas.
This is a very important development - project economics perspective.
The Citi report - for what its worth - talked about breakeven at $7/Gj assuming 5PJ per well and $6/GJ at 7 PJ/well. They have now about-faced and upgraded recommendation to a hold from a sell but still label BPT "speculative". Rubbish in-Rubbish out and without rigor that's the standard of their research.

The following point #2 address the PJ/well issue - gas productivity.


#2
MD also talking about cost per GJ at circa $4/GJ.
Of course the expected gas production per well has everything to do with the unit cost.
Remember - BPT highlighted that gas came from the shales, deeper Patchawarra and have yet to test the shallower Toolachee. They have now highlighted that the CB unconventional gas play is about "Basin Centred Gas" accumulation. Conventional gas is the tip of the iceberg - unconventional is the huge part of the iceberg you don't see - Google for reading material.
It is possible that the gas is a couple times more that originally estimated just for the shale. Logically, each well can be expected to be more productive than just producing from the shale. The more productive US shales produces up to 10BCFs say 9 PJ/well. I would expect at this early stage that PEL218 would be producing significantly north of 5BCF/well.
The "BCG" concept is not something dreamt up by BPT - just Google for info. Get very excited!

In summary, indication of high of gas productivity per well and in a sharply rising gas price environment.
Really great place to be.

Also from the presentations - Lots of activity in 2012 as we all know - Encounter 1 will be fracked with lots of flow info gathered from the different formations. No problems with equipment availability and interest from the suppliers + plenty of interest from the LNG majors. In a very nice space right now.

GB