Just on the shale gas numbers floating around based on PEL218 and ATP855 is a contigent resource/GIIP call it what you like - of circa 100 TCF. If we are to double that for the non shale we have 200 TCF. Recoverable gas percentage works out between 10-30%. CSG takeovers for Arrow and QCG worked out at circa 50c/GJ and current takeover for ESG works out at circa 16c/GJ.
Conservative case, I would use 15% of say 150 TCF giving me 22 TCF recoverable - and at 10c/GJ gives me $2.2 billion. This works out at $2 a share for BPT for its unconventional gas.
More optimistic case, 20% and 20c/GJ gives us $5 a share. Not unrealistic with scenario of improving outlook for domestic gas price to $6-8/GJ and BPT's indicated lower well cost at circa $4/GJ.
A very reasonable SP target would be $2 to $3 in 2012. With supportive data becoming available on unit well cost/well productivity/rising gas price - not unreasonable to expect a SP north of $5.
GB
BPT Price at posting:
$1.11 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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