If SLT are on track with their prospectus as they said to you blokes who called them up, then this is how it looks:
Taking low case scenarios:
Income:
Hep A: 2,000,000 per year in licensing
Hep E: 1,000,000 per year in licensing
Hep C: 10,000,000 per year in licensing (assuming a conservative 5x Hep A, given market size shown in prospectus)
Exps:
Roughly 2m in expenses as per 1.6m in prosepctus plus a bit for good measure.
Profitability:
With just Hep A and E, 1,000,000 in annual profit
With Hep C around the corner, that would be 11,000,000 in annual profit
Multiple:
Assuming commercial deals are announced for A and E, then I would suggest a multiple of 40 would be conservative (given the potential of Hep C diagnostic kit plus vaccine products plus anti-virals)
Assuming Hep C done deal, then lets say multiple drops to 25 (given potential of vaccine products plus anti-virals plus anything else they may come up with given their strong cash flow)
Market Cap:
So fellows, we are talking a market cap with Hep A and E done deals of around $40m, and with Hep C done deal a market cap of $275m
Share price:
Given the 21m odd shares, this equates to a sp of $1.87 with Hep A and E done and an sp of $12.83 with Hep C done deal
Summary:
I am no expert, but this looks like there is huge upside and the fact that SLT are responding that all is on track, means this is easily worth the punt. A bargain.
Have I misunderstood these numbers? Please anyone out there who has looked at this, please let me know where I have gone wrong.
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- can someone critique these numbers - looks too goo
can someone critique these numbers - looks too goo
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