Can STO survive, page-457

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m0ngy

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20/01/16

19:35

Post #: 16835727
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Originally posted by Pbnewby ↑

Just read on investing.com that there is an additional 230 million barrels of oil storage world wide being completed this year - there is still over 100+ million barrels of storage capacity in the US alone.

Why the EIA is trying to scare people with this headline "market could drown in oversupply" is beyond me - even their worst case scenario with Iran being able to bring 1 mil barrels a day extra to the market sees a surplus of 1.5mil barrels that equates to 2016 for the entire year everyone has to keep pumping flat out and Iran is meant to be pumping an extra 1mil barrels a day for the whole year and then we would fill all the storages in a years time?? - BS

a. Iran is not able to produce an extra million barrels a day and probably won't for another year or so.
b. US output is not going to stay where it is for another year - all the indicators are pointing to it decreasing by at around 1 mil barrels a day byt the end of the year.
c. Everyone is scaling back who can except 2nd world countries that are pumping full tilt with equipment that should be getting maintained if not replaced - duct tape can only do so much...
d. China's numbers show its still thirsty for oil and their demand is GROWING...
e. India's demand is growing
f. The US's demand is growing
g.The global stockpile accounts for just over a months supply - woop de do and most of that is heavy grade
h. Alarm bells are ringing left right and centre on banks exposed to the US shalers due to what the market knows is unfolding right in front of them - their production decrease may well be a lot more than a million barrels a day..
i. Iran needs cash if it pisses in its own drinking fountain by going head to head with the saudis it will lose and it knows it - its been under huge sanctions for 10 years or more - the people there are expecting something from the sanctions being lifted why would Iran piss in its own drinking fountain and decrease the amount it receives for its oil - most of which is heavy sour and already at a discount to Brent..

We thought the bottom was going to be reached in Dec - it wasn't but all the reasons why we thought that are still unfolding - 2016 at some point the bottom will be reached - it might be tomorrow it might be next week it might after the US reporting season is done in regards their oilers when the full picture of their real position is exposed. I personally think once the market gets its head around just what is really achievable by the Iranians and wether they really do want to piss in their own drinking fountain then reality will set back in - I don't think we're going to race back to $50 or above but I do think we'll be moving off these lows IMHO. Whats really crazy is that its not like we can go down the petrol station and see if we can buy some of that Iranian oil to see how much is around or what they selling it for so all we get is people yelling and screaming thats it the end as this tidal wave of supposed Iranian oil swallows the world - FFS..

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Citi is forecasting Q4 2016 rallies in oil prices and a huge increase in natural gas

http://www.*.com.au/c...or-every-major-commodity-in-one-chart-2015-12

STO Price at posting: $2.48 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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