Can Syria Ceacefires be extended?

Originally posted by Osi ↑

Forgive me if I'm wrong but I assume that the resolution relates to the whole of Syria. I don't know whether or not it will hold (in all probability it won't) but here are my 2 bits worth:

Firstly there are several fronts in this conflict and I don't have my head around all of them. People who do are generally talking from a government feed which will be highly biased but none the less contain useful information within the propaganda.

1. East Ghouta where 400,000 people are reportedly trapped and starving and 500 or so civilians (including 160 children) were reportedly blasted to pieces in the last 24 hours.

I don't have my head around this long running siege. The war lords on both sides won't give an inch BUT my guess is that maybe Putin saw the cease fire resolution as a way to avoid a Sarajevo 1914 situation further developing.

The task for Putin now will be to make his frenemies (Khamenei and Assad's Iranian influenced flunkies) realise that the US and EU would have used East Ghouta as justification to push through a zone from the Jordanian border to Dier Ezzor, this denying Iran access to or through the Syrian border to the Mediterranean.

Somehow Putin needs to make Khamenei behave but in truth I don't know if he can. Soleimani will see it but the mad mullahs who are busting at the bit for a go at Israel may not ..... and ...... Soleimani is not the most senior officer in the Iranian armed forces.

Regardless, Putin absolutely needs to be seen to take back the moral high ground that he has certainly lost in recent years .... and this is his opportunity.

This area of Damascus sits in Assad held territory and so the rebels would do well to leave in buses to Erdogan's Islamist mini-State. If they don't then Putin maintains the high ground.

2. Idlib I don't have a solution for the Al Qaeda mini-State that has been facilitated by Erdogan. Stupidly trying to blast structures it to bits doesn't achieve a military advantage ..... all it does is kill civilians, turn civilians towards the extremist neo-Islamist cause and create rubble within which terrorists may establish their fighting positions.

I detest the outcome but Turkish controlled areas perhaps just need to be accepted. It will end up like North Cyprus as a permanent pseudo annexation but it is as it is. Wall it off.

3. Afrin I hear that Turkey welcomes the UN Resolution. Maybe Erdogan can claim victory on the 15% of Afrin his forces managed to take from the defenders .... of whom only a small percentage are PKK hardliners. There is a forthcoming electoral process in Turkey and Erdogan seeks to secure his position for life. Erdogan's paid Islamist militias have proven (again) to be useless canon fodder (around 400 have been killed and 800 severely wounded) BUT he cant afford high Turkish military casualties and maintain his cherished domestic popularity.

Will the UN resolution be applied to Afrin? We can but wait and see but the YPG should jump at the opportunity while they are still the dominant defending force in this region.

4. Manbij Erdogan may dream of personally giving Trump the Ottoman Slap as depicted in his propaganda but even the most stupid officers within the TSK would think twice before entering into direct conflict with US forces. In such a conflict the EU (including Greece) would certainly side with the US and take action. The whittled down officer corps within the TSK may see the UN resolution as an exit clause that enables them to also save face.

Erdogan can now claim victory to the cheers of his brain dead supporters. This is what we all want!

4. The East Yeah. Trump and Khamenei may both seek to fight it out here but perhaps some of their generals do not. The senior commanders on both sides have reason to maintain the truce in this area.

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Talk about brain dead,
Osi, still continuing to post garbage...